A Methodological Framework for Strategic Electricity Generation Planning in India: Assessing Resource Adequacy Through Probability Risk Metrics

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Das, S.S., Majumdar, R., Krishnan, A.V., Srikanth, R. (2026). In: Renewable Power for Sustainable Growth: Proceedings of ICRP 2024 (Volume 2); Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering (LNEE) Series, Springer (pp. 371–392).
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This study discusses a methodological framework in conjunction with the existing probability-based risk metrics for assessing the resource adequacy of the electricity generation mix, considering the generation capacities of different sources, their average availability levels, and the possible outages that these sources may suffer from. The simulations show that the available capacity decreases with an increasing number of discrete risk events, which limits the capability of the power system to meet the demand. For a 2-day test simulation (considering a loss of load expectation value of 2 event-days), the loss of load event is found to be 4 events, and the expected unreserved energy is estimated to be 1400 MWh over the predefined, representative 2-day period.

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