"Modelling Climate Change"
Speaker : Dr. Stella Jes Varghese
Assistant Professor, Centre for Climate Change, Atria University, Bengaluru
@ : stella.varghese@atriauniversity.edu.in
Chairperson : Prof. A. Chandrasekar
ISRO Chair Professor, School of Natural Sciences and Engineering, NIAS
@ : chandra@nias.res.in
Date : 4th November 2026
Time : 9.30 AM
Venue : Lecture Hall
Abstract: How can we understand the Earth's climate system, explain its past changes, and anticipate its future? This talk explores the fundamental principles underlying climate modelling, beginning with the Earth's energy balance and the physical processes that govern the exchange of energy. It introduces the role of radiative forcing and climate feedbacks in shaping the response of the climate system to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The discussion then moves from physical principles to numerical climate models, examining how complex processes are represented computationally and why the chaotic nature of the atmosphere limits deterministic predictions. Building on these concepts, the talk introduces climate model evaluation, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), and the interpretation of future climate projections under different emissions scenarios. The talk highlights how climate models can help us understand regional climate change, changing patterns of extreme events, and the uncertainties associated with future projections. The objective is to develop a physical understanding of what climate models can tell us, what they cannot, and how they inform scientific research and climate-related decision-making.
About the speaker: Dr. Stella Jes Varghese is a climate scientist whose research focuses on climate science, climate modelling, and the dynamics of extreme weather events. Her work includes evaluation of climate models, investigating Indian summer monsoon variability and extremes, and understanding the physical mechanisms driving tropical cyclone intensification over the North Indian Ocean. Her research interests span monsoon dynamics, climate projections, and the application of climate science to regional and sectoral challenges. Through her teaching and research, she aims to bridge fundamental climate physics, numerical modelling, and practical applications for climate-resilient planning and decision-making.