Abstract: India’s agrarian livelihoods are acutely sensitive to climate impacts. Despite the heightened vulnerabilities, the effect of climate change on migration patterns within the country remains underexplored due to a systematic data shortfall. This study introduces a novel methodology for the systematic analysis of climate-induced migration in rural India. Moving beyond the traditional emphasis in climate migration research on permanent household out-migration from high-risk areas, our research focuses on circular labour migration among male household members. By integrating panel census data on male agrarian workforces from 550,000 Indian villages with a Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) rendered at a 0.05° resolution, and employing time-lagged drought predictors in a fixed-effects regression model, we demonstrate that drought conditions prompt a significant reallocation of the male workforce away from agriculture at the village level. This effect is mostly seen in Eastern Uttar Pradesh, Western Bihar, Jharkhand, and parts of Madhya Pradesh. Given the limited local and regional employment alternatives to farming, this observed reduction in agricultural labour can potentially serve as a partial proxy for climate-induced circular labour migration. Our initial findings from 2,000 rural household surveys, completed in March of 2024 in Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, and Bihar, offer additional insights into this migration process.
About the speaker: Dr. Robbin Jan van Duijne is a Postdoctoral Research Scientist at Columbia University’s Climate School in New York, specializing as a human geographer in the dynamic relationship between human populations and our rapidly evolving environment. His research employs mixed-methods study designs, typically beginning with the creation of large, custom-made geo-datasets that integrate natural and social science data to better understand human-environment interactions. This analytical work ‘from above’ is complemented by in-depth fieldwork ‘from below’. His current projects focus on understanding the shifts in agrarian livelihoods, labour migration, and their ties to climate change impacts. He has regional expertise and fieldwork experience in rural India, notably in the states of Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, and West Bengal.